A few days ago, the topic # gold price fell to a nearly one-month low # on the hot search, sparking discussion.
After rising for a period of time, the international gold price has obviously reversed recently, and the gold price of brand jewelry has also decreased. According to the China Securities News, during the May Day holiday, the reporter visited and investigated the gold consumer market and found that due to the decline in international gold prices and the promotion of the "May Day" holiday and other factors, the terminal gold price fell obviously. After the discount of many brands of gold, the price is back below 600 yuan / g.
Recently, the latest US non-farm payrolls data for April fell far short of expectations, raising market expectations of the Fed's interest rate cut this year. However, due to signs of easing geopolitical risks in the Middle East and profitable shipments by some investors, international gold prices fluctuated sharply, falling to a new low in nearly a month, and the June gold futures price, the most actively traded by New Zealand businessmen, was at 2308.Musicalbingonearme.60 US dollars per ounce, down 0.04%, down 1.64% this week.
The price of gold returns to the "5th era"
According to the China Securities News, the reporter visited and saw that a number of brands of gold, including Zhou Dasheng (002867) and China Gold, are now offering prices back to the "5 times". "there is a discount of 100 yuan per gram during the holiday and 599 yuan per gram after the discount, with additional cost. During the holiday period, in addition to store activities, shopping malls also offer preferential activities for gold purchases, and there are more gold buyers during the holidays. " Zhou Dasheng store sales staff told reporters.
"the turnover of the May Day holiday is about 2 to 3 times that of the usual, and the jewelry money is mainly used for marriage, and part of it is to please yourself. Gold bars have also been sold more recently, but there is no spot in the store, so we need to pay a deposit to transfer the goods. " China gold store sales staff told reporters. In addition to gold, the price discounts of some products represented by diamonds and Hetian jade are also relatively large.
"at present, in addition to the 50 yuan per gram discount for gold, there is basically a 50% discount for other categories of products. The May Day holiday superimposed on Mother's Day is approaching, and there are relatively large concessions for other categories of products except gold. " Lao Fengxiang (600612) store salesperson told reporters.
Picture sourceMusicalbingonearmeVisual China
According to Chao News, in sharp contrast to the popular tourist city "people following the crowd" during the May Day holiday, many gold stores in Hangzhou are empty. "there are so many people in the scenic spot, I really hope the diversion point will come to our store!" On the evening of the 3rd, Ms. Wang, the manager of a gold store in Hangzhou Wulin Business District, told the reporter that business was really a little slow on May Day.
"I have been working for 20 years, and this year's May Day holiday is the weakest May Day holiday. In the first three days of May Day, I only did more than 20,000 yuan in the weakest day. Before May Day, there were at least 50,000 yuan in business." Ms. Wang said that the high price of gold when people travel is the reason for the slow business of gold shops during the holidays.
Ms. Wang revealed that she also went to a jewelry city in Hangzhou yesterday to take a look at her peers, and also found that there were not many customers in each store. "some customers say they are waiting for a big drop in June. I don't know why they say so. In fact, many customers still don't do it from Spring Festival to Women's Day and from Women's Day to May Day. As a matter of fact, the price of gold on May Day is cheap, so come and buy it quickly! " Ms. Wang sighed.
Mr. Zhang, an owner of three jewelry stores in Hangzhou, told reporters that this holiday business is really not as good as the previous holiday business, and he did not arrange for his employees to work overtime. On May 2, he simply took his family to travel. "there is always an off-season. The off-season used to be May and June of the lunar calendar, but this year it has become a month with high gold prices. After the fade, it will definitely break out."
There is still upward momentum in the medium to long term.
According to the Securities Times, Sha Chuan, a fund manager at Tianhong Shanghai Gold ETF, said central banks continued to buy gold, pushing gold prices above the previous threshold, which led some wait-and-see investors or trend traders to chase higher. But what is different from the past is that the recent rise in gold prices and the rise in real interest rates are actually not in line with the law of history, showing non-fundamental trading factors. The central bank's gold-buying behavior has a certain persistence, but the trend of rising and short stop-loss behavior may not be sustained. "in the future, gold prices may have a large adjustment or shock after the current level or short-term rise. Asset volatility will increase, and risk-averse investors need to carefully consider their affordability. "
"Gold may continue to be under upward pressure from a strong dollar and US bond yields in the short term, but it still has upward momentum in the medium to long term." Wang Xiang said that the short-term volatility of gold prices has increased, and the attitude towards gold's short-term marginal adjustment tendency remains unchanged, but investors have further increased their attention during the adjustment period, which may be a better opportunity to re-enter the market throughout the year. "if the subsequent macro evolution does move towards re-inflation, the high bond interest payments and fiscal deficit in the United States, as well as the gradual consumption of the US liquidity safety pad, mean that the Fed has limited room for further tightening. Real interest rates, which are highly negatively related to gold assets, will really expand the downside, and gold trading odds will increase significantly. It is suggested that investors should actively pay attention to the emergence of intervention opportunities after the subsequent price fall. "
In the view of Shen Jing, fund manager of Morgan Stanley Fund Equity Investment Department, the core influencing factor of gold is the medium-and long-term real interest rate in the United States. After the Fed raised interest rates at its peak, the periodic decline in interest rates on 10-year US Treasuries catalyzed the start of gold prices. The escalation of the geo-conflict in April further promoted the price of gold to rise, and the risk aversion attribute of gold became a short-term influencing factor, which has greater uncertainty. As a result, gold prices have fallen back from new highs after the situation has eased slightly. In the medium to long term, the market's concern about the weakening of US dollar credit, as well as the behavior of central banks' continued gold purchases in recent years, support gold prices easily. "
"in the short term, the market rush loose expected trading, short-term rapid rally may to some extent bring profit-taking pullback risk. In this context, it is irrational to blindly chase gains. If there is a pullback in gold, it can still be allocated at a bargain. " Cathay Pacific Fund said that as a safe haven asset, gold has a low correlation with stocks and bonds from the perspective of asset allocation, and is suitable for allocation in the portfolio to smooth the volatility of the portfolio. It is suggested that investors should make a comprehensive judgment in the light of global macroeconomic trends, geopolitical situation and global central bank purchases. For ordinary investors, it is recommended to consider their own risk preference, or part of the investable assets can be allocated to gold assets from the perspective of long-term allocation.
每日经济新闻综合中国证券报、潮新闻、证券时报
免责声明：本文内容与数据仅供参考，不构成投资建议，使用前请核实。据此操作，风险自担。
封面图片来源：视觉中国